I agree in general, but there are a few minor points where I feel more discussion is potentially useful. On the other hand, as an American you have to shoot me to make me shut up so maybe those feelings are wrong.
1) Your quoted "25% cost reduction per doubling" is very aggressive- I don't know a specific number for batteries but most of what I've seen is 15-20% (18% for solar, from memory.) Maybe batteries are really doing that well; good news if true. It's a 50% difference in price for 16x growth, which may not be a major difference.
2) I tend to think in terms of "4 Wh of battery for every W of new solar" which, very approximately, makes that solar dispatchable over the day. Also, VERY approximately, doubles the cost of the system (as both are falling ~20% per year, this is really imprecise.) Maybe less so for a sunny English summer day. 12 hours of battery for me is kind of a valley-of-death unless we get a new technology that's "kinda slow to charge and discharge" but really cheap. I hope Noon Energy or Form Energy get their 100+ hour systems going, which makes wind dispatchable, but I understand if you can't assume new technologies will save us. Also, Form Energy has a model which claims that 100 hours gets rid of most of the dunkelflaute problem but I haven't checked their model.
3) Solar panels are so dang cheap that weird things like "Put two sets at steep angles back to back, one east one west, sharing an inverter" make more sense than you'd expect. This lets you get more morning and evening power, taking some stress off your batteries. (In PV-Watts, for London, I got about 25% more power than due south, but that wasn't exactly peer reviewed work.) Current wholesale panel prices are around US$0.07/W .
Thanks - I'll have a look at Form Energy. There's the issue of inter-annual variability which requires larger amounts of long term storage. I'll write about this some time. I've done a lot of work on this topic in relation to 100 per cent renewable uk
Thats going to need a huge amount of batteries. We have 5GWh currently a cold winter day we still use nearly 900GWh and thats before increased electrification if transport and heat. Even the current build out will only get us to c25GWh by 2028. Govt needs to seriously change policy on batts and other long term storage otherwise its pointless over building solar.
MODO have this take on short term build out which i was using. My take remains is any new solar should have been matched with at 2hr batt capacity to receive subsidies.
I agree in general, but there are a few minor points where I feel more discussion is potentially useful. On the other hand, as an American you have to shoot me to make me shut up so maybe those feelings are wrong.
1) Your quoted "25% cost reduction per doubling" is very aggressive- I don't know a specific number for batteries but most of what I've seen is 15-20% (18% for solar, from memory.) Maybe batteries are really doing that well; good news if true. It's a 50% difference in price for 16x growth, which may not be a major difference.
2) I tend to think in terms of "4 Wh of battery for every W of new solar" which, very approximately, makes that solar dispatchable over the day. Also, VERY approximately, doubles the cost of the system (as both are falling ~20% per year, this is really imprecise.) Maybe less so for a sunny English summer day. 12 hours of battery for me is kind of a valley-of-death unless we get a new technology that's "kinda slow to charge and discharge" but really cheap. I hope Noon Energy or Form Energy get their 100+ hour systems going, which makes wind dispatchable, but I understand if you can't assume new technologies will save us. Also, Form Energy has a model which claims that 100 hours gets rid of most of the dunkelflaute problem but I haven't checked their model.
3) Solar panels are so dang cheap that weird things like "Put two sets at steep angles back to back, one east one west, sharing an inverter" make more sense than you'd expect. This lets you get more morning and evening power, taking some stress off your batteries. (In PV-Watts, for London, I got about 25% more power than due south, but that wasn't exactly peer reviewed work.) Current wholesale panel prices are around US$0.07/W .
Thanks - I'll have a look at Form Energy. There's the issue of inter-annual variability which requires larger amounts of long term storage. I'll write about this some time. I've done a lot of work on this topic in relation to 100 per cent renewable uk
25% more east-west than due south?
Could this lead to a shift from an AC to a DC transmission system?
What land usage will be needed for these batteries. Has this been factored into the analysis? Will this be a constraining factor?
Thats going to need a huge amount of batteries. We have 5GWh currently a cold winter day we still use nearly 900GWh and thats before increased electrification if transport and heat. Even the current build out will only get us to c25GWh by 2028. Govt needs to seriously change policy on batts and other long term storage otherwise its pointless over building solar.
well there's a huge amount of batteries in the pipeline - a lot more than your source suggests https://www.edina.eu/news/uk-battery-energy-storage-pipeline-exceeds-95gw#:
MODO have this take on short term build out which i was using. My take remains is any new solar should have been matched with at 2hr batt capacity to receive subsidies.
https://modoenergy.com/research/gb-benchmark-battery-energy-storage-pipeline-projection-may-2024